All points, or at least as well as forecast surveys, that in the next elections, the PP will get worse results than in the last election date as a result of the emergence of Vox. One of the reasons that will contribute to the loss of votes which it predicts for the popular is an old known System d’hont.
To ensure that all territories, however small they may be, have representation in the Parliament, in Spain follows the System d’hont, which is quite proportional in the constituencies larger while the smallest benefits to the parties most voted.
Until a few years ago, this was not a problem for the formations of the mainstream, PP and PSOE. However, since in the elections of 2015 we Can and Citizens (Cs) were presented as alternatives, it seems that the System d’hont has turned against him.
The constituencies small
The first to be hit was the socialist party, whose share of seats in the Congress fell to all-time lows in the stage of Rajoy. One of the causes of the collapse was that in the constituencies small in that there are few representatives in the game, the socialists dropped their performance to the heat of the boom, we Can and Cs.
As these parties I “stole” a majority of votes to the PSOE than to the PP, the socialists got a lesser amount of supports something that, later, resulted in the balance between the two is desnivelara. This is because the PP got those seats in each constituency are left “hanging” and that is usually split between PP and PSOE in virtue of who is stronger in each election date.
The opposite case
Now, with the new election date on the horizon, and tailwinds blowing in favor of the PSOE, the tables are reversed and it seems that the PP is going to be the one to suffer in the next elections of the peculiarities of the System d’hont. Vox has emerged with strength and barometers predict that you will get a remarkable share of votes in all the constituencies, also in the small.
In this way, if the vote of the right is divided between several formations, the balance between PP and PSOE could return to desnivelarse, but this time in favor of the socialists. Just as in the previous elections, the PP maintained its number of votes, now this could fall out in party favor of Abascal. This does not, however, assures Vox get representation in the Chamber, although it did pave the way for the PSOE to “steal” the PP those seats dancing from one party to another in function of each appointment with the polls.Translated from ABC News https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-sistema-dhont-arma-doble-filo-ahora-vuelve-contra-pp-201903150226_noticia.html