Paris Updated:13/02/2020 16:41h
The epidemic of the coronavirus and its impact on the chinese economy, where many companies have been forced to extend to February the closures started last month by the vacation of the lunar new year, are the main causes of the retreat of about 435 000 barrels in daily demand for oil in the first quarter of 2020, the first decline in global consumption of crude since the 2009 recession, according to the monthly bulletin of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The global demand for oil has been very much affected by the new coronavirus (Covid-19) and the closing general economy of China”, has advertidohoy the agency attached to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which has been revised by 30.6% to lower its forecast of global oil demand in 2020, up to 825.000 barrels per day, its worst since 2011.
In this sense, the IEA stresses that China has changed greatly since the SARS epidemic of 2003 and is currently a key actor in global supply chains, as well as in the number of travelers that enter and leave the country, which raises the risk of the spread of the virus.
In addition, the agency points out that, while in 2003 the demand for oil from China was 5.7 million barrels per day in 2019 is more than double, reaching 13.7 million, equivalent to 14% of the total consumption of crude oil in the world, in addition to that the asian giant was the last year more than three-quarters of the growth in global demand.
On the other hand, the impact of the coronavirus has already been profound in the oil prices, with a fall of approximately 20%, about 10 dollars, the price of a barrel of Brent to less than $ 55.
“Before it appeared Covid-19, the market was already nervous in anticipation of an excess supply of one million barrels in the first half of 2020 due to the continued expansion in the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Norway,” says the IEA, to which, even threats to the security of supply as tensions in Iraq and the fall of production in Libya had little impact on prices.
From the point of view of the producers of crude oil, the IEA stresses that the crisis of the coronavirus has led to the countries of the group OPEC+ consider an additional cut of 0.6 million barrels of the oil supply as an emergency measure, in addition to the adjustment committed 1.7 million.
“The low price of oil, if maintained, are also bad news for u.s. oil companies,” warns the IEA, even though the agency considers it unlikely that there would be an impact on the growth of the production until later in the year. “The effect of the crisis of Covid-19 in the general economy means that it will be difficult for the consumer to notice the benefit of the lower price of oil,” concludes the IEA.
Translated from ABC News https://www.abc.es/economia/abci-coronavirus-causa-primera-caida-demanda-mundial-petroleo-desde-2009-202002131630_noticia.html