Barcelona Updated:27/03/2020 04:02h
Has for years been the counterpoint scientist to the voices that drew attention on epidemics apocalypses that never came. However, for the first time in his long career, Antoni Trilla, head of Epidemiology of the Hospital Clínic of Barcelona, recognizes that a virus, SARS-CoV2, he has lost. “I was surprised by the evolution of the epidemic by the great speed at which it has spread. We have put all of them to the limit of a very fast way. We were not prepared”, says Trilla in statements to this newspaper. From the trench of the Clinic, Threshing has been seen as the epidemic spread over it like a stain of oil. After the outbreak of Igualada and the rising progressive cases, the predictions of the experts were ruined. “The predictions are subject to many variations difficult to control,” says this epidemiologist, to which the Government has called for it to be one of 16 scientific members of the committee of emergency Spanish, appointed to deal with this unknown virus.
– When he was called to be part of this advisory council?
-I called by phone the director of the Coordination Centre of Alerts and Emergencies, Fernando Simon, and he asked me to be part of this scientific advisory board. I said yes, who was delighted.
– What is the role of this new organ?
-To contribute our reflections to the scientific debate to support the action that is being performed against the crisis. The Coordination Center Alerts and Health Emergencies have the numbers and we think about them.
– When did you reach the peak epidemic?
-We are on the upward curve. When it will come to the punta epidemic is difficult to predict. The mathematical models which draw the evolution make predictions that are subjected to many variations that are difficult to control, such as the emergence of outbreaks such as the Igualada that triggered the occurrence or the non-compliance of the containment measures.
-The curve epidemic begins to address the rise and the majority of the hospitals are overcrowded and without material to assist the most vulnerable. The worst part of the epidemic will not be the lethality of the virus but the lack of resources to cope with, don’t you think?
-If the peak of the epidemic comes to an abrupt end and the climb is fast, no doubt that will be worse for our health system, because hospitals will have to take a high volume of patients of stroke. If the number of cases progressively increases, the number of people affected will be the same but the health system will suffer less.
-One of the reports handled by the Generalitat contemplated that the confinement will last until June, the peak is at the end of April and lead to 13,000 deaths in this community…
-I don’t know the detail of the study. I know that is the most pessimistic scenario envisaged by the government and I’m okay with that gaze.
– How do you expect the experts to evolve the epidemic?
-It is difficult to make predictions. If these next few days improves the time we think that will play to our favor, and if you comply with containment measures will also help us. Moving forward now something is complicated. What is certain is that Catalonia is going between 5 and 7 days behind of Madrid. When we see that peak to Madrid we will know when you will arrive to Catalonia.
– What is the total containment the only measure to control the epidemic?
-I always say that it is a game of trade-offs very difficult. To my understanding, the measures of containment must be a surgery selective. Try the country up and running because then we have to activate. Account should be taken of the economic consequences of the measures that are being taken. The subsequent recession to the coronavirus could cause a damage to health equal to or even more than the epidemic.
– Why we find ourselves in this situation?
-We do not have a society prepared for epidemics because, simply, we don’t have epidemics.
-There are some who point out that our mediterranean character and plays against us…
-I just know that there are studies that suggest that the oriental has an average of four physical contacts daily and we we doubled and tripled that number. That influences and it does not help us.
Translated from ABC News https://www.abc.es/sociedad/abci-recesion-podria-danar-salud-incluso-mas-epidemia-202003270402_noticia.html